Hamwe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere iganisha ku nyanja n’izamuka ry’umuyaga, inkombe z’isi zirahura n’isuri zitigeze zibaho. Ariko, guhanura neza impinduka zinyanja biragoye, cyane cyane inzira ndende. Vuba aha, ubushakashatsi mpuzamahanga bwa ShoreShop2.0 bwasuzumye imikorere yuburyo 34 bwo guhanura inkombe hifashishijwe ibizamini buhumyi, byerekana uko ubuhanzi bugezweho muburyo bwo kwerekana imiterere yinyanja.
Inkombe ni imbibi zikomeye aho ubutaka buhurira ninyanja, bigahora bihinduka kubera imiraba, imiraba, umuyaga, hamwe n’izamuka ry’inyanja. Hafi ya 24% y’inyanja y’umucanga ku isi hose basubira inyuma ku kigero kirenga metero 0,5 ku mwaka, kandi mu turere tumwe na tumwe, nko ku nkombe z’ikigobe cya Amerika, igipimo cy’isuri ngarukamwaka kirenga metero 20.
Guteganya ihinduka ry’inyanja biragoye kandi biragoye, bisaba ko harebwa imikoranire yibintu byinshi, harimo ingufu zumuraba, ubwikorezi bwimitsi, hamwe n’izamuka ry’inyanja. Guhanura neza mugihe kirekire birarushijeho kuba ingorabahizi.
Uburyo bugezweho bwo guhanura inkombe burashobora kugabanywamo ibyiciro bitatu: kimwe gishingiye ku kwigana kumubiri, nka Delft3D na MIKE21 hashingiwe ku bukanishi bw’amazi no kugereranya imyanda; imwe ni moderi ivanga ihuza amahame yumubiri nuburyo bukoreshwa namakuru, nka CoSMoS-COAST na LX-Shore; naho ubundi ni moderi ikoreshwa namakuru yishingikiriza rwose kubuhanga bwo kwiga imibare cyangwa imashini, nkimiyoboro ya LSTM hamwe nubwubatsi bwa Transformer.
Nuburyo butandukanye bwikitegererezo, kubura ibipimo ngenderwaho bihuriweho byatumye kugereranya imikorere bigorana. Ni ubuhe buryo butanga ubuhanuzi bwuzuye? Amarushanwa yo gupima impumyi ShoreShop2.0 atanga amahirwe meza yo kugereranya imipaka.
Amarushanwa mpuzamahanga yo gupima impumyi ShoreShop2.0 nuburyo bukomeye cyane bwubufatanye bwa siyanse. Amakipe yitabiriye amenyeshwa gusa ikizamini, ni izina rya kode yinyanja cyangwa inyanja. Amakuru yingenzi nkaho aherereye nizina nyirizina birahishwa kugirango ubuze ubumenyi bwambere kutagira ingaruka kubikorwa. Byongeye kandi, amakuru abikwa mu ibanga mu bice, hamwe namakuru yo muri 2019-2023 (igihe gito) na 1951-1998 (igihe giciriritse) yahagaritswe nkana. Icyitegererezo noneho gihanura impinduka ngufi nigihe giciriritse impinduka, amaherezo ikagenzura ukuri kwayo ukoresheje amakuru y'ibanga. Igishushanyo gifasha kugereranya imipaka ya moderi yinyanja mubihe bitazwi neza.
Amatsinda 34 yubushakashatsi yaturutse mubihugu 15 yatanze icyitegererezo, gikubiyemo moderi 12 zikoreshwa namakuru hamwe na 22 ya Hybrid. Aya makipe yaturutse mu bigo byo muri Amerika, Ositaraliya, Ubuyapani, Ubufaransa, ndetse no mu bindi bihugu. Nyamara, moderi zatanzwe zabuze moderi zubucuruzi nka GENESIS hamwe na moderi ishingiye kuri fiziki Delft3D na MIKE21.
Ikigereranyo cyagaragaje ko moderi ikora neza cyane mugihe gito, imyaka itanu iteganijwe ni CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (moderi ya Hybrid), GAT-LSTM_YM (moderi ikoreshwa namakuru), na iTransformer-KC (moderi ikoreshwa namakuru). Izi moderi zageze kumuzi zisobanura amakosa ya kare agera kuri metero 10, ugereranije nikosa ryavutse rya metero 8.9 muri satelite ya kure yerekana amakuru yinyanja. Ibi byerekana ko ku nkombe zimwe na zimwe, ubushobozi bwikitegererezo bugereranya imipaka yubuhanga bwo kureba. Nibyo, izindi moderi zashoboye gufata neza impinduka zinkombe.
Icyagaragaye gitangaje nuko moderi ya Hybrid yakoze igereranijwe nicyitegererezo cyatanzwe na data. Co. Ingero zombi zakoze neza.
Kubyerekeranye nigihe giciriritse giteganijwe, urukurikirane rwa LX-Shore (moderi ya Hybrid) rutanga ibyahanuwe hafi yamakuru yapimwe. Muguhuza inzira yo gutwara no gutembera kuruhande, izi moderi zigumana ituze ryigihe kirekire mugihe zigaragaza ibisubizo bihamye kubyabaye bikabije byumuyaga hamwe namakuru yapimwe. Ibyahanuwe kuri ubu buryo byerekana ko umuyaga umwe ukomeye ushobora gutera umwiherero wigihe gito wa metero 15-20, hamwe no gukira byuzuye bishobora gufata imyaka ibiri cyangwa itatu. Urukurikirane rwa CoSMoS-COAST rutanga ituze ryiza, mugihe izindi moderi zishobora kubabazwa nigihe kirekire no gutwarwa birenze.
Ibisubizo by'icyitegererezo byerekana koireme ryamakuruni urufunguzo rwo kugabanya imikorere yicyitegererezo. Mugihe icyogajuru cya kure cyo kumva amakuru gikubiyemo ahantu hanini, imiterere yacyo yigihe gito ni mike, mubisanzwe buri cyumweru kugeza buri kwezi, kuburyo bigoye gufata vuba nyuma yumuyaga. Ikigeretse kuri ibyo, inkombe y'amazi ako kanya yibasiwe no gutemba kw'amazi hamwe n'amazi, biganisha ku makosa y'inzibacyuho ashobora kugira ingaruka ku guhanura icyitegererezo.
Ubushakashatsi bwerekanye ko amakuru ya spatiotemporal yoroshye, nko gukoresha tekiniki zikomeye zo muyunguruzi, zishobora kunoza imikorere yicyitegererezo. Nyuma, ibizamini bitari impumyi byatanzwe byagabanije ikigereranyo cya 15% binyuze muburyo bwiza bwo gutangiza amakuru.
Gukomera 2D Korohereza ni uburyo bwambere bwo gutunganya ibimenyetso byabugenewe gutunganya urusaku mumibare yicyogajuru. Byibanze, ni itera yogushungura algorithm ishingiye kumurambararo ufite uburemere buke, kandi irakomeye cyane kubasohoka nkurusaku rwigihe gito mumashusho ya satelite.
Ikindi kintu cyingenzi muburyo bwo guhanura ni ukuri kwukuri kwamakuru yegereye. Kugeza ubu, amakuru y’umuhengeri ahura namakosa atandukanye, harimo amakosa muguhindura hafi yamakuru yisi yose yisesengura ryamakuru, kubogama guterwa no gukuramo ibipimo byumuraba kuri metero 10 ya isobath aho kumeneka, hamwe no kudaha agaciro ingaruka zibyabaye bikabije ukoresheje ibihe bya buri munsi. Aya makosa yose arashobora kugira ingaruka kubitekerezo byahanuwe.
Kubirebire by'igihe kirekire, abanyamideli benshi bashingira ku mategeko ya kera ya Brown kugira ngo bagereranye ingaruka zo kuzamuka kw'inyanja. Nyamara, iri tegeko riteganya gutanga imyanda itagira ingano kandi iringaniye kandi yirengagije ingaruka ziterwa no gutwara imyanda yo mu nyanja cyangwa ibikorwa byabantu, nko kugaburira inyanja. Ibi birashobora kuganisha kubintu byingenzi bibogamye.
Hashingiwe ku myumvire iringaniye, amategeko ya Brownian atanga isano iri hagati yo kuzamuka kwinyanja n’umwiherero w’inyanja. Iyi nyigisho yerekana ko umwirondoro winyanja ugumana imiterere iringaniye. Mugihe inyanja yazamutse, umwanya wamacumbi wiyongera uhatira iyi shusho iringaniye kwimuka kugirango igumane imiterere ugereranije ninyanja nshya. Kubera iyo mpamvu, igitekerezo kivuga ko uko umwirondoro w’inyanja ugenda ugana ku butaka, igice cyo hejuru cyo ku mucanga kirangirika, kandi ibikoresho byangiritse bigashyirwa ku nkombe, bigatuma inyanja y’inyanja izamuka, bityo bikomeza ubujyakuzimu bw’amazi. Amategeko ya Brown avuga ko umwiherero wo ku nkombe ushobora kuba wikubye inshuro 10 kugeza kuri 50 hejuru y’izamuka ry’inyanja, bitewe n’imisozi y’inyanja.
Ubu bushakashatsi butanga ishingiro ryo guhitamo ibikoresho bikwiye bishingiye kubikenewe byihariye. Byongeye kandi, gutunganya amakuru ni ngombwa; gutunganya neza amakuru birashobora rimwe na rimwe kugira ingaruka zikomeye kurugero rwonyine. Ukurikije ubunararibonye wungutse hamwe na ShoreShop 2.0, harashobora kunozwa ibyogajuru hamwe namakuru yumurongo kugirango byongere ubuhanuzi. Ikigeretse kuri ibyo, ingaruka zidashobora kugenzurwa ninyanja yahungabanye muburyo bwigihe kirekire irashobora kandi kugira ingaruka zikomeye kubisubizo. Byongeye kandi, kutagira uruhare mubikorwa byubucuruzi nka GENESIS, Delft3D, na MIKE21 nikibazo gikomeye.
?Abashinzwe kurinda Ubururu: Inshingano ya Frankstar yimyaka 11 yo kurinda inyanja yacu nikirere
Mu myaka irenga icumi, Frankstar yabaye ku isonga mu kwita ku bidukikije byo mu nyanja, akoresha ikoranabuhanga rigezweho ndetse n’ubumenyi bwa siyansi kugira ngo atange inyanja ntagereranywa n’amakuru ya hydrologiya. Inshingano zacu zirenze ikusanyamakuru gusa - turi abubatsi b'ejo hazaza harambye, duha imbaraga ibigo, kaminuza, na guverinoma kwisi yose gufata ibyemezo byubuzima bwumubumbe wacu.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Kanama-11-2025