Njengoko utshintsho lwemozulu lukhokelela ekunyukeni kwamanqanaba olwandle kunye nezivuthuvuthu ezikhulayo, iindawo ezigudle ulwandle zehlabathi zijongene nemingcipheko yokukhukuliseka okungazange kwenzeke ngaphambili. Nangona kunjalo, ukuxela kwangaphambili ngokuchanekileyo utshintsho olugudle ulwandle kuyingxaki, ingakumbi iindlela eziza kwenzeka kwixesha elide. Kutshanje, uphando oluhlangeneyo lwe-ShoreShop2.0 luvavanye ukusebenza kweemodeli ezingama-34 zokuqikelela unxweme ngokuvavanya ngokungaboniyo, nto leyo etyhila imeko yangoku yobugcisa ekuboniseni unxweme.

Unxweme ngumda oguqukayo apho umhlaba udibana nolwandle, utshintsha rhoqo ngenxa yamaza, amaza, izivunguvungu, kunye nokunyuka komgangatho wolwandle. Malunga ne-24% yeendawo ezinxweme ezinesanti kwihlabathi liphela zibuyela umva ngesantya esingaphezulu kwe-0.5 yeemitha ngonyaka, kwaye kwezinye iindawo, ezifana ne-US Gulf Coast, izinga lokukhukuliseka konyaka lingaphezulu kwe-20 yeemitha.

Ukuqikelela utshintsho oluya kudlula elunxwemeni ngokwemvelo kunzima kwaye kuyinkimbinkimbi, kufuna ukuqwalaselwa kokudibana kwezinto ezininzi, kubandakanya amandla amaza, ukuthuthwa kwesanti, kunye nokunyuka komgangatho wolwandle. Uqikelelo oluchanekileyo oluya kudlula ixesha elide lunzima nangakumbi.

Iimodeli zokuqikelela unxweme lwanamhlanje zingahlulwahlulwa zibe ziindidi ezintathu: enye isekelwe kwi-physical simulation, efana neDelft3D kunye neMIKE21 ngokusekelwe kwi-fluid mechanics kunye ne-sediment transport equations; enye yimodeli edibeneyo edibanisa imigaqo ye-physical kunye neendlela eziqhutywa yidatha, ezifana neCoSMoS-COAST kunye neLX-Shore; kwaye enye yimodeli eqhutywa yidatha exhomekeke ngokupheleleyo kwiindlela zokufunda izibalo okanye zoomatshini, ezifana neenethiwekhi ze-LSTM kunye nezakhiwo zeTransformer.

Nangona kukho iintlobo ngeentlobo zeemodeli, ukungabikho kwemilinganiselo yovavanyo edibeneyo kwenze ukuba uthelekiso lokusebenza lube nzima. Ngowuphi umodeli onika uqikelelo oluchanekileyo? Ukhuphiswano lovavanyo olungaboniyo lweShoreShop2.0 lubonelela ngethuba elifanelekileyo lothelekiso oludibanisa izifundo ezahlukeneyo.

Ukhuphiswano lwamazwe ngamazwe lovavanyo olungaboniyo lweShoreShop2.0 luhlobo olunzima kakhulu lwentsebenziswano yesayensi. Amaqela athatha inxaxheba aziswa kuphela ngendawo yovavanyo, eligama lekhowudi yechweba okanye ulwandle. Ulwazi oluphambili olufana nendawo ekuyo kunye negama langempela lufihliwe ukuthintela ulwazi lwangaphambili ekuphembeleleni ukulinganiswa kwemodeli. Ngaphezu koko, idatha igcinwa iyimfihlo kumacandelo, kunye nedatha ukusuka ngo-2019-2023 (yexesha elifutshane) kunye no-1951-1998 (yexesha eliphakathi) efihliwe ngabom. Iimodeli emva koko zixela kwangaphambili utshintsho lwaselunxwemeni lwexesha elifutshane neliphakathi, ekugqibeleni ziqinisekisa ukuchaneka kwazo kusetyenziswa idatha eyimfihlo. Olu yilo luvumela uthelekiso oludibanisa iimodeli zaselunxwemeni phantsi kweemeko ezingaziwayo ngokupheleleyo.

Amaqela ophando angamashumi amathathu anesine avela kumazwe ali-15 angenise iimodeli, eziquka iimodeli ezili-12 eziqhutywa yidatha kunye neemodeli ezingama-22 ezixutyiweyo. La maqela avela kumaziko aseMelika, eOstreliya, eJapan, eFransi, nakwamanye amazwe. Nangona kunjalo, iimodeli ezithunyelweyo zazingenazo iimodeli zorhwebo ezifana neGENESIS kunye neemodeli ezisekelwe kwifiziksi iDelft3D kunye neMIKE21.

Uthelekiso lubonise ukuba iimodeli ezisebenza kakuhle kakhulu kwixesha elifutshane, leminyaka emihlanu yokuqikelela yayiyiCoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (imodeli exutyiweyo), iGAT-LSTM_YM (imodeli eqhutywa yidatha), kunye ne-iTransformer-KC (imodeli eqhutywa yidatha). Ezi modeli zifumene iimpazamo zesikwere eziphakathi ezimalunga neemitha ezili-10, ezifana nempazamo yendalo yeemitha ezili-8.9 kwidatha yesathelayithi yokuqonda unxweme olukude. Oku kubonisa ukuba kwezinye iilwandle, amandla okuqikelela eemodeli asondela kwimida yetekhnoloji yokujonga. Kakade ke, ezinye iimodeli zikwazile ukubamba ngcono utshintsho lonxweme.

Into emangalisayo kukuba imodeli ye-hybrid isebenze ngokufana nemodeli eqhutywa yidatha. I-CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (imodeli ye-hybrid) idibanisa iinkqubo zomzimba kunye nemisebenzi ye-convolutional, ngelixa i-GAT-LSTM_YM (imodeli eqhutywa yidatha) isebenzisa inethiwekhi yokujonga igrafu ukuze ibambe ulwalamano lwesithuba. Zombini iimodeli zisebenze kakuhle.

Ngokuphathelele uqikelelo lwexesha eliphakathi, uthotho lwe-LX-Shore (iimodeli ze-hybrid) lubonelela ngoqikelelo olusondeleyo kwidatha elinganisiweyo. Ngokudibanisa iinkqubo zokuthutha i-alloway kunye ne-lateral sediment, ezi modeli zigcina uzinzo lwexesha elide ngelixa zibonisa iimpendulo ezihambelanayo kwiziganeko zesiphango esigqithisileyo kunye nedatha elinganisiweyo. Uqikelelo oluvela kwezi modeli lubonisa ukuba isiphango esinye esinamandla sinokubangela ukuhlehla konxweme okwethutyana ukuya kuthi ga kwi-15-20 yeemitha, kunye nokubuyiselwa ngokupheleleyo okunokuthi kuthathe iminyaka emibini ukuya kwemithathu. Uthotho lwe-CoSMoS-COAST lubonelela ngozinzo oluhle kakhulu, ngelixa ezinye iimodeli zinokuchaphazeleka kukukhukuliseka kwexesha elide kunye nokuphendula ngokugqithisileyo.

Iziphumo zemodeli zibonisa ukubaumgangatho wedathayinto ebalulekileyo ekuthinteleni ukusebenza kwemodeli. Nangona idatha yesathelayithi ekude igubungela indawo ebanzi, isisombululo sayo sexesha siphantsi, ngokuqhelekileyo iveki ukuya kwinyanga, okwenza kube nzima ukubamba ukubuyiselwa ngokukhawuleza emva kwesiphepho. Ngaphezu koko, umda wamanzi okhawulezileyo uchatshazelwa kukuhamba kwamaza kunye namaza, okukhokelela kwiimpazamo zexesha elifutshane ezinokuchaphazela uqikelelo lwemodeli.

Olu phononongo lufumanise ukuba ukucocwa kwedatha yendawo, njengokusetyenziswa kweendlela zokucoca ezinobukhulu obuphindwe kabini, kunokuphucula kakhulu ukusebenza kwemodeli. Kamva, iimodeli zovavanyo ezingabonakaliyo zingenise impazamo ephakathi nge-15% ngokulungiswa kwedatha kwangaphambili.

I-Robust 2D Smoothing yindlela ephucukileyo yokucubungula isignali eyenzelwe ngokukodwa ukucubungula ingxolo kwidatha yesathelayithi eselunxwemeni. Ngokuyintloko, yi-algorithm yokucoca ephindaphindayo esekwe kwiikwere ezincinci ezinobunzima, kwaye inamandla kakhulu kwizinto ezingaphandle ezifana nengxolo yamaza edlulayo kwimifanekiso yesathelayithi.

Enye into ebalulekileyo kwiingxelo zemodeli kukuchaneka kwedatha yamaza akufutshane nonxweme. Okwangoku, idatha yamaza ineengxaki ezahlukeneyo, kuquka iimpazamo ekuguqulweni kwedatha yokuhlaziywa kwamaza akufutshane nonxweme, ucalucalulo olubangelwa kukukhupha iiparameter zamaza kwi-isobath yeemitha ezili-10 endaweni yendawo yokuqhekeka, kunye nokungaqikelelwa kwempembelelo yeziganeko ezigqithisileyo ngokusebenzisa iimeko zamaza aphakathi zemihla ngemihla. Ezi mpazamo zonke zinokuchaphazela uqikelelo lwemodeli.

Kwiingxelo zexesha elide, uninzi lweemodeli luxhomekeke kumthetho weBrownian oqhelekileyo ukuqikelela impembelelo yokunyuka komgangatho wolwandle. Nangona kunjalo, lo mthetho uthatha unikezelo lwentlenga olungenasiphelo nolulinganayo kwaye awuyinaki imiphumo yokuthuthwa kwentlenga elunxwemeni okanye imisebenzi yabantu, njengokondliwa kolwandle. Oku kunokukhokelela ekukhetheni okukhulu kwemodeli.

Ngokusekelwe kwithiyori yeprofayili yokulingana, umthetho kaBrownian ubonelela ngolwalamano oluthe ngqo phakathi kokunyuka komgangatho wolwandle kunye nokurhoxa konxweme. Le thiyori ithi iprofayili yonxweme igcina imo yokulingana. Njengoko umgangatho wolwandle unyuka, indawo yokuhlala eyandayo inyanzela le profayili yokulingana ukuba itshintshele emhlabeni ukuze igcine imo yayo xa ithelekiswa nomgangatho omtsha wolwandle. Ngenxa yoko, le thiyori ithi njengoko iprofayili yonxweme itshintsha iye emhlabeni, umaleko ophezulu wolwandle uyawohloka, kwaye izinto eziwohlokileyo zigcinwa elunxwemeni, nto leyo ebangela ukuba umgangatho wolwandle okufutshane nonxweme unyuke, ngaloo ndlela kugcinwa ubunzulu bamanzi obungaguqukiyo. Umthetho kaBrown uqikelela ukuba ukurhoxa konxweme kunokuba mkhulu ngokuphindwe ka-10 ukuya kuma-50 kunokunyuka komgangatho wolwandle, kuxhomekeke kwithambeka lolwandle.

Olu phononongo lubonelela ngesiseko sokukhetha izixhobo ezifanelekileyo ngokusekelwe kwiimfuno ezithile. Ngaphezu koko, ukucubungula idatha kwangaphambili kubalulekile; ukucutshungulwa kwedatha ngokufanelekileyo ngamanye amaxesha kunokuba nempembelelo enkulu kunemodeli ngokwayo. Ukwakha kumava afunyenwe ngeShoreShop 2.0, kunokwenziwa uphuculo kwidatha yesathelayithi kunye namaza ukuphucula ukuchaneka kokuqikelela. Ngaphezu koko, iziphumo ezingalawulekiyo zolwandle oluphazamisekileyo ngokwenziwa kwiingxelo zexesha elide nazo zinokuchaphazela kakhulu iziphumo zokuqikelela. Ngaphezu koko, ukungabikho kokuthatha inxaxheba kwiimodeli zorhwebo ezifana neGENESIS, Delft3D, kunye neMIKE21 yingxaki ebalulekileyo.

​Abagcini beBlue Frontier: Umsebenzi kaFrankstar weminyaka eli-11 wokukhusela iilwandle zethu kunye nemozulu

Kangangeminyaka engaphezu kweshumi, iFrankstar ibiphambili ekulawuleni ulwandle, isebenzisa ubuchwepheshe obuphambili kunye nobunzima besayensi ukuhambisa idatha yolwandle kunye neyamanzi engenakuthelekiswa nanto. Umsebenzi wethu udlula ukuqokelelwa kwedatha nje—singabakhi bekamva elizinzileyo, sixhobisa amaziko, iiyunivesithi, kunye noorhulumente kwihlabathi liphela ukuba benze izigqibo ezinolwazi ngempilo yeplanethi yethu.