Njengoba ushintsho lwesimo sezulu luholela ekukhuphukeni kwamazinga olwandle kanye neziphepho eziqinile, izindawo ezisogwini lomhlaba wonke zibhekene nezingozi zokuguguleka komhlaba okungakaze kubonwe. Kodwa-ke, ukubikezela ngokunembile ushintsho ogwini lolwandle kuyinselele, ikakhulukazi izitayela zesikhathi eside. Muva nje, ucwaningo lokubambisana lwamazwe ngamazwe lwe-ShoreShop2.0 luhlole ukusebenza kwamamodeli angu-34 okubikezela ogwini lolwandle ngokuhlola okungaboni, okwembula isimo samanje sobuchwepheshe ekumodeleni ogwini lolwandle.

Ugu lolwandle luwumngcele oguquguqukayo lapho umhlaba uhlangana khona nolwandle, okushintsha njalo ngenxa yamagagasi, amagagasi, iziphepho, kanye nokwenyuka kwezinga lolwandle. Cishe ama-24% ogwini lwesihlabathi emhlabeni wonke abuyela emuva ngesivinini esingaphezu kwamamitha angu-0.5 ngonyaka, futhi kwezinye izindawo, njenge-US Gulf Coast, izinga lokuguguleka kwaminyaka yonke likhulu ngisho nangaphezu kwamamitha angu-20.

Ukubikezela ushintsho ogwini lolwandle kunzima futhi kuyinkimbinkimbi ngokwemvelo, kudinga ukucatshangelwa kokuxhumana kwezici eziningi, okuhlanganisa amandla amagagasi, ukuthuthwa kwenhlabathi, kanye nokwenyuka kwezinga lolwandle. Ukubikezela okunembile ngokuhamba kwesikhathi eside kuyinselele nakakhulu.

Amamodeli okubikezela ogwini lwanamuhla angahlukaniswa ngezigaba ezintathu: eyodwa isekelwe ekulingiseni okungokoqobo, njenge-Delft3D kanye ne-MIKE21 ngokusekelwe kuma-mechanics oketshezi kanye nezibalo zokuthutha kwe-sediment; enye iyimodeli ehlanganisiwe ehlanganisa izimiso ezingokoqobo nezindlela eziqhutshwa idatha, njenge-CoSMoS-COAST kanye ne-LX-Shore; kanti enye iyimodeli eqhutshwa idatha ethembele ngokuphelele kumasu okufunda izibalo noma omshini, njengamanethiwekhi e-LSTM kanye nezakhiwo ze-Transformer.

Naphezu kokuhlukahlukana kwamamodeli, ukuntuleka kwezindlela zokuhlola ezihlanganisiwe kwenze ukuqhathanisa ukusebenza kwaba nzima. Yimuphi imodeli onikeza izibikezelo ezinembile kakhulu? Umncintiswano wokuhlola okungaboni we-ShoreShop2.0 unikeza ithuba elihle lokuqhathanisa okuhlukahlukene.

Umncintiswano wokuhlola okungaboni wamazwe ngamazwe we-ShoreShop2.0 uyindlela eqinile kakhulu yokusebenzisana kwesayensi. Amaqembu abambe iqhaza aziswa kuphela ngendawo yokuhlola, okuyigama lekhodi lechweba noma ibhishi. Ulwazi olubalulekile njengendawo yalo kanye negama langempela lufihliwe ukuvimbela ulwazi lwangaphambilini ukuthi lungathonyi ukulinganiswa kwemodeli. Ngaphezu kwalokho, idatha igcinwa iyimfihlo ezigabeni, kanye nedatha kusukela ngo-2019-2023 (yesikhathi esifushane) kanye no-1951-1998 (yesikhathi esiphakathi) efihliwe ngamabomu. Amamodeli abe esebikezela izinguquko zogu lolwandle zesikhathi esifushane nesesikhathi esiphakathi, ekugcineni eqinisekisa ukunemba kwawo kusetshenziswa idatha eyimfihlo. Lo mklamo uvumela ukuqhathaniswa kwemikhakha eyahlukene yamamodeli asogwini ngaphansi kwezimo ezingaziwa nhlobo.

Amaqembu ocwaningo angamashumi amathathu nane avela emazweni ayi-15 athumele amamodeli, ahlanganisa amamodeli ayi-12 aqhutshwa idatha kanye namamodeli angama-22 ahlanganisiwe. La maqembu avela ezikhungweni e-United States, e-Australia, eJapane, eFrance nakwamanye amazwe. Kodwa-ke, amamodeli athunyelwe ayengenawo amamodeli ezentengiselwano afana ne-GENESIS kanye namamodeli asekelwe ku-physics i-Delft3D kanye ne-MIKE21.

Ukuqhathanisa kwembule ukuthi amamodeli asebenza kahle kakhulu ezibikezelo zesikhathi esifushane, zeminyaka emihlanu kwakuyi-CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (imodeli ehlanganisiwe), i-GAT-LSTM_YM (imodeli eqhutshwa idatha), kanye ne-iTransformer-KC (imodeli eqhutshwa idatha). Lawa mamodeli athole amaphutha esikwele aphakathi nendawo angaba amamitha ayi-10, afana nephutha elingokwemvelo lamamitha angu-8.9 kudatha yolwandle oluqonda kude lwesathelayithi. Lokhu kubonisa ukuthi kwamanye amabhishi, amakhono okubikezela amamodeli asondela emikhawulweni yobuchwepheshe bokubuka. Yiqiniso, amanye amamodeli akwazile ukubamba kangcono izinguquko zolwandle.

Okumangazayo ukuthi imodeli ehlanganisiwe isebenze ngendlela efanayo nemodeli eqhutshwa idatha. I-CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (imodeli ehlanganisiwe) ihlanganisa izinqubo zomzimba kanye nemisebenzi ye-convolutional, kuyilapho i-GAT-LSTM_YM (imodeli eqhutshwa idatha) isebenzisa inethiwekhi yokunaka igrafu ukuze ibambe ubudlelwano bendawo. Womabili amamodeli asebenze kahle.

Ngokuphathelene nezibikezelo zesikhathi esimaphakathi, uchungechunge lwe-LX-Shore (amamodeli e-hybrid) lunikeza izibikezelo eziseduze kakhulu nedatha elinganisiwe. Ngokuhlanganisa izinqubo zokuthutha i-alshore kanye ne-lateral sediment, lawa mamodeli agcina ukuzinza kwesikhathi eside ngenkathi ebonisa izimpendulo ezihambisana kakhulu nezehlakalo zesiphepho esibi kakhulu nedatha elinganisiwe. Izibikezelo ezivela kulawa mamodeli zibonisa ukuthi isiphepho esisodwa esinamandla singabangela ukubuyela emuva kwesikhashana kogu lolwandle okungafika kumamitha ayi-15-20, kanti ukululama okuphelele kungathatha iminyaka emibili kuya kwemithathu. Uchungechunge lwe-CoSMoS-COAST lunikeza ukuzinza okuhle kakhulu, kuyilapho amanye amamodeli engase ahlupheke ngokukhukhuleka kwesikhathi eside kanye nokuphendula ngokweqile.

Imiphumela yemodeli ikhombisa ukuthiikhwalithi yedathaiyisici esibalulekile esivimbela ukusebenza kwemodeli. Ngenkathi idatha yokuzwa kude kwesathelayithi imboza indawo ebanzi, ukulungiswa kwayo kwesikhathi kuphansi, ngokuvamile masonto onke kuya njalo ngenyanga, okwenza kube nzima ukuthola ukululama okusheshayo ngemva kwesiphepho. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umkhawulo wamanzi osheshayo uthintwa ukugeleza kwamagagasi kanye namagagasi, okuholela emaphutheni esikhashana angathinta izibikezelo zemodeli.

Ucwaningo luthole ukuthi ukushelela idatha yendawo, njengokusebenzisa amasu okuhlunga aqinile anobukhulu obubili, kungathuthukisa kakhulu ukusebenza kwemodeli. Kamuva, amamodeli okuhlola angabonisi mbono alethe iphutha eliphakathi elincishisiwe ngo-15% ngokucubungula idatha kusengaphambili okwenziwe ngcono.

I-Robust 2D Smoothing iyindlela ethuthukisiwe yokucubungula isignali eyenzelwe ngqo ukucubungula umsindo kudatha yesethelayithi yasogwini. Empeleni, iyi-algorithm yokuhlunga ephindaphindayo esekelwe ezikweleni ezincane ezinesisindo, futhi inamandla kakhulu ezintweni ezingaphandle njengomsindo wamagagasi wesikhashana ezithombeni zesethelayithi.

Esinye isici esibalulekile ekubikezelweni kwemodeli ukunemba kwedatha yamagagasi aseduze nogu. Njengamanje, idatha yamagagasi ihlushwa amaphutha ahlukahlukene, okuhlanganisa amaphutha ekuguqulweni kwedatha yokuhlaziywa kabusha kwamagagasi aseduze nogu, ukucwaswa okubangelwa ukukhipha amapharamitha wamagagasi ku-isobath yamamitha ayi-10 endaweni yokuqhekeka, kanye nokungaqageli umthelela wezenzakalo ezimbi kakhulu ngokusebenzisa izimo zamagagasi ajwayelekile nsuku zonke. Lawa maphutha angathinta izibikezelo zemodeli.

Ukuze kubikezelwe isikhathi eside, amamodeli amaningi athembele emthethweni we-Brownian wakudala ukuze alinganisele umthelela wokwenyuka kwezinga lolwandle. Kodwa-ke, lo mthetho uthatha ukuhlinzekwa kwenhlabathi okungenamkhawulo nokulinganayo futhi awunaki imiphumela yokuthuthwa kwenhlabathi ogwini lolwandle noma imisebenzi yabantu, njengokondliwa kwasogwini. Lokhu kungaholela ekubandlululweni okukhulu kwemodeli.

Ngokusekelwe kumbono wephrofayili yokulingana, umthetho kaBrownian unikeza ubudlelwano obuqondile phakathi kokuphakama kwezinga lolwandle kanye nokuhlehla kogu. Lo mbono uphakamisa ukuthi iphrofayili yogu igcina isimo sokulingana. Njengoba izinga lolwandle likhuphuka, indawo yokuhlala eyandayo iphoqa le phrofayili yokulingana ukuba ishintshele ezweni ukuze igcine isimo sayo uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga lolwandle elisha. Ngenxa yalokho, umbono uphakamisa ukuthi njengoba iphrofayili yogu ishintsha iye ezweni, ungqimba olungaphezulu logu luyaguguleka, futhi izinto ezigugulekile zibekwe ogwini, okubangela ukuthi phansi kolwandle oluseduze nogu lukhuphuke, ngaleyo ndlela kugcinwa ukujula kwamanzi okungaguquki. Umthetho kaBrown ubikezela ukuthi ukuhlehla kogu kungaba mkhulu ngokuphindwe kayi-10 kuya ku-50 kunokuphakama kwezinga lolwandle, kuye ngokuthi umthambeka wogu ungakanani.

Lolu cwaningo luhlinzeka ngesisekelo sokukhetha amathuluzi afanele ngokusekelwe ezidingweni ezithile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukucubungula idatha kusengaphambili kubalulekile; ukucubungula idatha okufanele ngezinye izikhathi kungaba nomthelela omkhulu kunemodeli uqobo. Ukwakhela kokuhlangenwe nakho okutholwe nge-ShoreShop 2.0, kungenziwa intuthuko kudatha yesathelayithi kanye neyamaza ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukunemba kokubikezela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imiphumela engalawuleki yamabhishi aphazamiseke ngokwenziwa ekubikezeleni kwesikhathi eside nayo ingathinta kakhulu imiphumela yokubikezela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuntuleka kokuhlanganyela kumamodeli ezentengiselwano afana ne-GENESIS, i-Delft3D, kanye ne-MIKE21 kuyinkinga ebalulekile.

​Abaqaphi beBlue Frontier: Umsebenzi weminyaka eyi-11 kaFrankstar wokuvikela izilwandle zethu kanye nesimo sezulu

Sekuyiminyaka engaphezu kweshumi, iFrankstar ibilokhu ihola ekuphathweni kwemvelo yasolwandle, isebenzisa ubuchwepheshe obusezingeni eliphezulu kanye nokuqina kwesayensi ukuletha idatha yolwandle neyamanzi engenakuqhathaniswa. Umsebenzi wethu udlula ukuqoqwa kwedatha nje—singabakhi bekusasa elizinzile, sinika amandla izikhungo, amanyuvesi, kanye nohulumeni emhlabeni wonke ukwenza izinqumo ezinolwazi ngempilo yeplanethi yethu.