Nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kunokonzera kukwira kwemvura yemugungwa uye madutu akasimba, mahombekombe egungwa ari kutarisana nenjodzi dzekukukurwa kwepasi zvisati zvamboitika. Zvisinei, kunyatsofanotaura nezvekuchinja kwemahombekombe kunonetsa, kunyanya maitiro enguva refu. Munguva pfupi yapfuura, ShoreShop2.0 yekudyidzana nedzimwe nyika ongororo yakaongorora mashandiro emhando makumi matatu nemana ekufanotaura kwemahombekombe kuburikidza nekuyedza kusaona, zvichiburitsa chimiro chazvino chehunyanzvi mukuenzanisira kwemahombekombe.
Mhenderekedzo yegungwa ndiwo muganho une simba apo nyika inosangana negungwa, inogara ichichinja nekuda kwemasaisai, masaisai, dutu, uye kusimuka kwegungwa. Inosvika makumi maviri neina muzana emahombekombe ejecha pasi rose ari kudzoka nechiyero chinodarika 0.5 metres pagore, uye mune dzimwe nzvimbo, senge US Gulf Coast, mwero wekukukurwa kwevhu wepagore wakatokura kupfuura 20 metres.
Kufanotaura kushanduka kwemahombekombe kwakaoma uye kwakaoma, zvinoda kufunga nezvekudyidzana kwezvinhu zvakawanda, zvinosanganisira simba remafungu, kutakura kwevhu, uye kukwira kwegungwa. Kufanotaura kwakarurama kwenguva yakareba kunotonyanya kuoma.
Mazuva ano ekufanotaura kwemahombekombe egungwa anogona kukamurwa kuita zvikamu zvitatu: imwe yakavakirwa pakuenzanisa kwemuviri, seDelft3D neMIKE21 zvichibva pamagetsi mechanics uye sediment transport equations; imwe imhando yakasanganiswa inobatanidza misimboti yemuviri nemaitiro anofambiswa nedata, akadai seCoSMoS-COAST uye LX-Shore; uye imwe imhando inofambiswa nedatha inovimba zvachose nenhamba kana michina yekudzidza matekiniki, akadai seLSTM network uye Transformer architecture.
Pasinei nemhando dzakasiyana-siyana dzemhando, kushaikwa kwemaitiro ekuongorora akabatana kwakaita kuti kuenzanisa kwekuita kuome. Ndeipi modhi inopa fungidziro dzakanyanya? Makwikwi eShoreShop2.0 mapofu ebvunzo anopa mukana wakakwana wekuenzanisa-kuranga kuenzanisa.
Makwikwi eShoreShop2.0 epasi rese mapofu ebvunzo inzira yakaoma kwazvo yekubatana kwesainzi. Zvikwata zviri kutora chikamu zvinongoziviswa nezvenzvimbo yekuyedza, inova zita rekodhi rebay kana beach. Ruzivo rwakakosha senge nzvimbo yaro uye zita chairo rakavigwa kudzivirira ruzivo rwekare kubva mukupesvedzera kuenzanisa kwemuenzaniso. Uyezve, data inochengetwa yakavanzika muzvikamu, ine data kubva 2019-2023 (pfupi-nguva) uye 1951-1998 (yepakati-nguva) yakanyimwa nemaune. Iwo mamodheru anobva afanotaura nezve shanduko yenguva pfupi uye yepakati-yemumhenderekedzo yegungwa, pakupedzisira vachiona huchokwadi hwavo vachishandisa zvakavanzika data. Iyi dhizaini inogonesa kuyambuka-chirango kuenzanisa yemhando dzemahombekombe pasi pemamiriro asingazivikanwe zvachose.
Zvikwata makumi matatu nezvina zvetsvakiridzo kubva kunyika gumi neshanu zvakatumira modhi, zvinosanganisira gumi nembiri dzinofambiswa nedata uye makumi maviri nemaviri emhando dzakasanganiswa. Zvikwata izvi zvakabva kumasangano ari muUnited States, Australia, Japan, France, nedzimwe nyika. Nekudaro, iwo mamodheru akatumirwa akashaya mhando dzekutengesa senge GENESIS uye fizikisi-yakavakirwa modhi Delft3D uye MIKE21.
Kuenzanisa kwakaratidza kuti mhando dzepamusoro-soro dzenguva pfupi, makore mashanu ekufungidzira aive CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (hybrid model), GAT-LSTM_YM (data-driven model), uye iTransformer-KC (data-driven model). Aya mamodheru akawana midzi inoreva zvikanganiso zvemamita angangoita gumi, zvichienzaniswa nekukanganisika kwe 8.9 metres mune setiraiti kure inonzwa data remahombekombe. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti kune mamwe mabhichi, mamodheru 'anogona kufanotaura ari kusvika kumiganhu yekutarisa tekinoroji. Ehe, mamwe mamodheru akakwanisa kutora zvirinani shanduko dzemahombekombe.
Chinhu chinoshamisa chakawanikwa ndechekuti iyo hybrid modhi yakaita inofananidzwa neiyo data-inofambiswa modhi. CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (hybrid modhi) inosanganisa maitiro emuviri uye convolutional mashandiro, nepo GAT-LSTM_YM (data-inofambiswa modhi) inoshandisa graph yekutarisisa network kutora kuwirirana kwenzvimbo. Ose mamodheru akaita zvakanaka.
Panyaya yekufanotaura kwepakati-kati, iyo LX-Shore yakatevedzana (mahybrid modhi) inopa fungidziro yepedyo yekuyerwa data. Nekubatanidza kumahombekombe uye lateral sediment zvifambiso zvekutakura, mamodheru aya anochengetedza kugadzikana kwenguva refu achiratidzira mhinduro dzinoenderana kune zviitiko zvakanyanya dutu zvine data rakayerwa. Kufembera kubva kumhando idzi kunoratidza kuti dutu rimwe chete rakaipisisa rinogona kukonzera kudzoka kwemahombekombe kwechinguva kusvika 15-20 metres, uye kupora kuzere kunogona kutora makore maviri kusvika matatu. Iyo CoSMoS-COAST yakatevedzana inopa kugadzikana kwakanyanya, nepo mamwe mamodheru anogona kutambura kubva-kureba kudhiraivha uye pamusoro-mhinduro.
Mienzaniso yemigumisiro inoratidza izvozvodata qualitychinhu chakakosha chinomisa mukuita modhi. Nepo setiraiti kure inonzwa data ichivhara nzvimbo yakakura, kugadzirisa kwayo kwechinguva kwakadzikira, kazhinji vhiki nevhiki kusvika pamwedzi, zvichiita kuti zviome kutora nekukurumidza mushure medutu kupora. Uyezve, iyo pakarepo yemvura mupendero inokanganiswa nekumhanya kwemafungu uye masaisai, zvichitungamira kune zvikanganiso zvenguva pfupi izvo zvinogona kukanganisa fungidziro yemhando.
Chidzidzo ichi chakawana kuti spatiotemporal data smoothing, sekushandisa kwakasimba-maviri-dimensional kusefa matekiniki, kunogona kuvandudza zvakanyanya mashandiro emuenzaniso. Gare gare, asiri mapofu ebvunzo modhi akaendesa yakaderedzwa avhareji kukanganisa ne15% kuburikidza neyakagadziridzwa data preprocessing.
Robust 2D Smoothing inzira yepamberi yekugadziridza siginecha yakagadzirirwa kugadzirisa ruzha mumahombekombe setiraiti data. Chaizvoizvo, ndeye iterative kusefa algorithm yakavakirwa pane huremu hudiki masikweya, uye yakasimba zvakanyanya kune kunze senge yechinguvana wave ruzha mumifananidzo yesatellite.
Chimwe chinhu chakakosha pakufanotaura kwemhando ndeye huchokwadi hwe data yepedyo negungwa. Parizvino, wave data inotambura nezvikanganiso zvakasiyana-siyana, kusanganisira zvikanganiso mukutendeuka kwepedyo kwepasi rose reanalysis data, kusarura kunokonzerwa nekubvisa mafungu parameter pa 10-metres isobath pane kutyora zone, uye kushomeka kwekukanganisa kwezviitiko zvakanyanyisa kuburikidza nekushandisa avhareji yemazuva ese mafungu mamiriro. Mhosho idzi dzinogona kukanganisa fungidziro dzemhando.
Nekufanotaura kwenguva refu, mamodheru mazhinji anovimba nemutemo weBrownian wekare kuti ufungidzire kukanganisa kwekukwira kwegungwa. Nekudaro, mutemo uyu unotora kusingaperi uye kwakaringana sediment kugovera uye kufuratira mhedzisiro yeoffshore sediment kutakura kana zviitiko zvevanhu, sekudya kwemahombekombe. Izvi zvinogona kutungamirira kune zvakakosha mamodeli kusarura.
Zvichienderana neiyo equilibrium profile theory, mutemo waBrownian unopa hukama hwemutsara pakati pekusimuka kwegungwa nekudzokera kwemahombekombe. Dzidziso iyi inotsigira kuti chimiro chemahombekombe chinochengetedza chimiro chekuenzanisa. Sezvo gungwa richikwira, nzvimbo yekugara iri kuwedzera inomanikidza chimiro ichi chekuenzanisa kuti chiende kunyika kuti chichengetedze chimiro chayo maererano nepamusoro pegungwa idzva. Nekuda kweizvozvo, dzidziso iyi inotaura kuti sezvo chimiro chemahombekombe chinoshanduka chichienda pasi, mahombekombe ekumusoro anokukurwa, uye zvinhu zvakakukurwa zvinoiswa kumahombekombe, zvichiita kuti pasi pegungwa padyo negungwa risimuke, zvichizochengeta kudzika kwemvura nguva dzose. Mutemo waBrown unofanotaura kuti kudzoka kwemahombekombe kunogona kuva kwakakura zvakapetwa ka10 kusvika ku50 kudarika kukwira kwegungwa, zvichienderana nemateru egungwa.
Ichi chidzidzo chinopa hwaro hwekusarudza zvishandiso zvakakodzera zvinoenderana nezvinodiwa chaizvo. Uyezve, kugadziridza data kwakakosha; kwakakodzera data kugadzirisa dzimwe nguva kunogona kuve nemhedzisiro yakakura kupfuura iyo modhi pachayo. Kuvaka pane chiitiko chakawanikwa neShoreShop 2.0, kuvandudzwa kunogona kuitwa kune satellite uye wave data kuti uwedzere kufanotaura chokwadi. Uyezve, kusadzoreka mhedzisiro yemahombekombe akakanganisika mune zvenguva refu kufanotaura kunogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya mhedzisiro yekufungidzira. Uyezve, kushaikwa kwekutora chikamu kubva kumhando dzekutengesa dzakadai seGENESIS, Delft3D, uye MIKE21 inyaya yakakosha.
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Nguva yekutumira: Aug-11-2025