Ngotshintsho lwemozulu olukhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaqondo olwandle kunye nezivunguvungu eziya ngamandla, iindawo ezingaselunxwemeni zehlabathi zijongene nemingcipheko yokhukuliseko engazange ibonwe ngaphambili. Nangona kunjalo, ukuqikelela ngokuchanekileyo utshintsho lonxweme kulucelomngeni, ngakumbi iintsingiselo zexesha elide. Kutshanje, uphononongo lwentsebenziswano lwamazwe ngamazwe lweShoreShop2.0 luvavanye ukusebenza kweemodeli ezingama-34 zokuqikelela unxweme ngovavanyo olungaboniyo, lutyhila imeko yangoku yobugcisa kumfuziselo wonxweme.
Unxweme ngumda oguquguqukayo apho umhlaba udibana nolwandle, uguquka rhoqo ngenxa yamaza, amaza, izaqhwithi, kunye nokunyuka komphakamo wolwandle. Malunga nama-24% emimandla engaselunxwemeni enesanti kwihlabathi jikelele ihlehla ngesantya esingaphezulu kwe-0.5 yeemitha ngonyaka, kwaye kwezinye iindawo, ezifana ne-US Gulf Coast, izinga lokhukuliseko lonyaka lingaphezulu nangaphezu kweemitha ezingama-20.
Ukuqikelela utshintsho lweendawo ezingaselunxwemeni ngokwemvelo kunzima kwaye kuntsonkothile, kufuna ingqwalasela yokusebenzisana kwezinto ezininzi, kubandakanywa amandla amaza, ukuthuthwa kwentlenga, kunye nokunyuka komphakamo wolwandle. Uqikelelo oluchanekileyo ngexesha elide lunzima ngakumbi.
Iimodeli zanamhlanje zokuqikelela unxweme zinokwahlulwa zibe ziindidi ezintathu: enye isekelwe kukulinganisa okubonakalayo, okufana neDelft3D kunye ne-MIKE21 esekwe kubuchwephesha be-fluid kunye ne-sediment transport equations; enye imodeli ye-hybride edibanisa imigaqo yomzimba kunye neendlela eziqhutywe ngedatha, ezifana ne-CoSMoS-COAST kunye ne-LX-Shore; kunye nenye imodeli eqhutywa yidatha exhomekeke ngokupheleleyo kwiinkcukacha manani okanye umatshini wokufunda iindlela, ezifana neenethiwekhi ze-LSTM kunye ne-Transformer architectures.
Nangona kukho iintlobo ngeentlobo zeemodeli, ukunqongophala kweenqobo zovavanyo ezimanyeneyo kwenze ukuba uthelekiso lwentsebenzo lube nzima. Yeyiphi imodeli enikezela ngoqikelelo oluchanekileyo? Ukhuphiswano lwe-ShoreShop2.0 lovavanyo olungaboniyo lunika ithuba elifanelekileyo lokuthelekisa iindlela zokuziphatha.
Ukhuphiswano lweShoreShop2.0 lovavanyo lwehlabathi olungaboniyo luhlobo olungqongqo lwentsebenziswano yezenzululwazi. Amaqela athatha inxaxheba aziswa kuphela ngendawo yovavanyo, eligama lekhowudi yebhayi okanye elwandle. Ulwazi oluphambili olunjengendawo yalo kunye negama lokwenyani lifihliwe ukunqanda ulwazi lwangaphambili ekubeni luphembelele ulungelelwaniso lwemodeli. Ngaphezu koko, idatha igcinwa iyimfihlo kumacandelo, kunye nedatha esuka kwi-2019-2023 (ixesha elifutshane) kunye ne-1951-1998 (ixesha eliphakathi) ibanjwe ngenjongo. Iimodeli ke ngoko ziqikelela utshintsho lwexesha elifutshane neliphakathi lonxweme, ekugqibeleni luqinisekisa ukuchaneka kwazo kusetyenziswa idatha eyimfihlo. Olu yilo luvumela uthelekiso olunqamlezileyo lweemodeli zonxweme phantsi kweemeko ezingaziwayo ngokupheleleyo.
Amaqela ophando angamashumi amathathu anesine avela kumazwe e-15 angenise imizekelo, equka iimodeli ze-12 eziqhutywa yidatha kunye ne-22 hybrid model. La maqela aphuma kumaziko aseMelika, eOstreliya, eJapan, eFransi nakwamanye amazwe. Nangona kunjalo, iimodeli ezingenisiweyo zazingenazo iimodeli zorhwebo ezinje ngeGENESIS kunye neemodeli ezisekwe kwifiziksi iDelft3D kunye neMIKE21.
Ukuthelekisa kubonakaliswe ukuba iimodeli eziphezulu zexesha elifutshane, iminyaka emihlanu yokubikezela yayiyi-CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (imodeli ye-hybrid), i-GAT-LSTM_YM (imodeli eqhutywa yidatha), kunye ne-iTransformer-KC (imodeli eqhutywa yidatha). Le mifuziselo iphunyeziweyo ingcambu yeempazamo ezisikweri ezimalunga neemitha ezili-10, xa zithelekiswa nempazamo ekhoyo yeemitha ezisi-8.9 kwidatha yesathelayithi ezivalela kude elunxwemeni. Oku kubonisa ukuba kwezinye iilwandle, iimodeli zokukwazi ukuqikelela sele zisondele kumda wobuchwephesha bokuqwalasela. Ngokuqinisekileyo, ezinye iimodeli ziye zakwazi ukubamba ngcono utshintsho lonxweme.
Ukufunyaniswa okumangalisayo kukuba imodeli ye-hybrid yenze ngokuthelekiswa nemodeli eqhutywa yidatha. I-CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (imodeli engumxube) idibanisa iinkqubo zomzimba kunye nokusebenza kwe-convolution, ngelixa i-GAT-LSTM_YM (imodeli eqhutywa yidatha) isebenzisa inethiwekhi yengqwalasela yegrafu ukubamba ulungelelwaniso lwesithuba. Zombini iimodeli ziqhube kakuhle.
Ngokoqikelelo lwexesha eliphakathi, i-LX-Shore series (imifuziselo exutyiweyo) ibonelela ngoqikelelo olusondeleyo kwidatha elinganisiweyo. Ngokudibanisa unxweme kunye neenkqubo zothutho lwentlenga esecaleni, le mizekelo igcina uzinzo lwexesha elide ngelixa ibonisa ezona mpendulo zihambelanayo kwiziganeko zesiqhwithi esigqithisileyo ngedatha elinganisiweyo. Uqikelelo oluvela kule mifuziselo lubonisa ukuba isaqhwithi esinye esinamandla sinokubangela ukuhlehla okwethutyana kunxweme oluya kuthi ga kwi-15-20 yeemitha, ukuchacha ngokupheleleyo okunokuthi kuthathe iminyaka emibini ukuya kwemithathu. Uthotho lwe-CoSMoS-COAST lunika uzinzo olubalaseleyo, ngelixa ezinye iimodeli zinokubandezeleka ngenxa yokuqhutywa kwexesha elide kunye nokuphendula ngaphezulu.
Iziphumo zemodeli zibonisa ukubaumgangatho wedathayinto ephambili ethintelayo ekusebenzeni kwemodeli. Ngelixa idatha ye-satellite ye-remote sensing igubungela indawo ebanzi, isisombululo sayo sexeshana siphantsi, ngokuqhelekileyo iveki ukuya kwinyanga, okwenza kube nzima ukubamba ukubuyiswa ngokukhawuleza emva kwesiphepho. Ngapha koko, umda wamanzi kwangoko uchatshazelwa kukubaleka kwamaza kunye namaza, okukhokelela kwiimpazamo ezidlulayo ezinokuchaphazela ukuqikelelwa kwemodeli.
Uphononongo lufumanise ukuba ukugudiswa kwedatha ye-spatiotemporal, njengokusetyenziswa kobuchule obuqinileyo bokucoca i-dimensional-dimensional, kunokuphucula kakhulu ukusebenza kwemodeli. Kamva, iimodeli zovavanyo ezingezizo iimfama zingenise imposiso encitshisiweyo ye-avareji nge-15% ngokulungiswa kwedatha kwangaphambili.
I-Robust 2D Smoothing yindlela ephucukileyo yokusetyenzwa komqondiso eyilelwe ngokukodwa ukucubungula ingxolo kwidatha yesathelayithi yonxweme. Ngokusisiseko, yi-algorithm yokucoca ephindaphindwayo esekwe kubunzima bobuncinci bezikwere, kwaye yomelele kakhulu kwiindawo ezingaphandle njengengxolo yamaza okwethutyana kwimifanekiso yesatellite.
Enye into ebalulekileyo kuqikelelo lwemodeli kukuchaneka kwedatha yamaza akufuphi nonxweme. Okwangoku, idatha yamaza inengxaki yeempazamo ezahlukeneyo, kubandakanywa iimpazamo kuguqulo olukufuphi nonxweme lwedatha ye-wave wave reanalysis, ucalucalulo olubangelwa kukukhupha iiparamitha zamaza kwi-isobath yeemitha ezili-10 kunendawo yokuqhekeka, kunye nokujongelwa phantsi kwempembelelo yeziganeko ezigqithisileyo ngokusebenzisa iimeko zamaza amaza mihla le. Ezi mpazamo zinokuchaphazela zonke iimodeli zokuqikelela.
Uqikelelo lwexesha elide, uninzi lweemodeli zixhomekeke kumthetho weBrownian wakudala ukuqikelela ifuthe lokunyuka komgangatho wolwandle. Nangona kunjalo, lo mthetho uthatha unikezelo lwentlenga olungenasiphelo nolulungeleleneyo kwaye aluhoyi iziphumo zothutho lwentlenga elunxwemeni okanye imisebenzi yabantu, efana nokondliwa kweelwandle. Oku kunokukhokelela kwiimodeli ezikhethekileyo.
Ngokusekwe kwithiyori yeprofayili yolinganiso, umthetho kaBrownian ubonelela ngobudlelwane bomgca phakathi kokunyuka komphakamo wolwandle kunye nokuhlehla konxweme. Le nkcazo-bungcali ibeka ukuba inkangeleko yaselunxwemeni igcina ubume obulinganayo. Njengoko umphakamo wolwandle unyuka, indawo yokuhlala eyandayo inyanzelisa le nkangeleko yolingano ukuba itshintshele emhlabeni ukuze igcine ukumila kwayo xa ithelekiswa kumgangatho omtsha wolwandle. Ngako oko, ithiyori ithi njengokuba imbonakalo yonxweme isiya emhlabeni, umaleko wonxweme olungaphezulu uyakhukuliswa, kwaye izinto ezikhukulisekileyo zilahlwe kude nonxweme, okubangela ukuba umgangatho wonxweme okufuphi nonxweme uphakame, ngaloo ndlela kugcinwe ubunzulu obungaguqukiyo bamanzi. Umthetho kaBrown uqikelela ukuba ukuhlehla elunxwemeni kunokuba mkhulu ngokuphindwe kayi-10 ukuya kuma-50 kunokuphakama komgangatho wolwandle, kuxhomekeke kwithambeka lonxweme.
Olu phononongo lubonelela ngesiseko sokukhetha izixhobo ezifanelekileyo ezisekelwe kwiimfuno ezithile. Ngaphaya koko, ukusetyenzwa kwedatha kwangaphambili kubalulekile; ukusetyenzwa kwedatha eyiyo ngamanye amaxesha kunokuba nempembelelo enkulu kunemodeli ngokwayo. Ukwakha kumava afunyenwe ngeShoreShop 2.0, uphuculo lunokwenziwa kwisathelayithi kunye nedatha yamaza ukuze kuphuculwe ukuchaneka kwengqikelelo. Ngaphaya koko, iziphumo ezingalawulekiyo zeelwandle eziphazanyiswe ngokwenziwa kuqikelelo lwexesha elide zinokuchaphazela kakhulu iziphumo zoqikelelo. Ngaphaya koko, ukungabikho kokuthatha inxaxheba kwiimodeli zorhwebo ezifana neGENESIS, Delft3D, kunye ne-MIKE21 ngumba obalulekileyo.
AbaGcini beBlue Frontier: iMinyaka eli-11 yeMinyaka ye-Frankstar yokukhusela uLwandle lwethu kunye neMozulu.
Ngaphezu kweshumi leminyaka, uFrankstar ebephambili kulawulo lwendalo yaselwandle, esebenzisa itekhnoloji ye-cutting-edge kunye nobungqongqo besayensi ukuhambisa idatha engalinganiyo yolwandle kunye ne-hydrological. Injongo yethu yogqitha nje ukuqokelelwa kwedatha-singabayili bekamva elizinzileyo, sixhobisa amaziko, iidyunivesithi, kunye noorhulumente kwihlabathi liphela ukuba benze izigqibo ezinolwazi ngempilo yomhlaba wethu.
Ixesha lokuposa: Aug-11-2025