Chifukwa cha kusintha kwa nyengo komwe kumayambitsa kukwera kwa madzi a m'nyanja ndi mvula yamkuntho, madera a m'mphepete mwa nyanja padziko lonse lapansi akukumana ndi chiwopsezo cha kukokoloka kosaneneka. Komabe, kulosera molondola za kusintha kwa nyanja ndizovuta, makamaka zomwe zimachitika nthawi yayitali. Posachedwapa, kafukufuku wapadziko lonse wa ShoreShop2.0 adaunika momwe 34 amalosera zam'mphepete mwa nyanja pogwiritsa ntchito kuyezetsa kosawona, kuwulula momwe luso lamakono lachitsanzo la m'mphepete mwa nyanja likuyendera.
Mphepete mwa nyanja ndi malire osunthika omwe nthaka imakumana ndi nyanja, imasintha nthawi zonse chifukwa cha mafunde, mafunde, mikuntho, ndi kukwera kwa nyanja. Pafupifupi 24% ya magombe amchenga padziko lonse lapansi akubwerera pamlingo wopitilira 0.5 metres pachaka, ndipo m'malo ena, monga US Gulf Coast, chiwopsezo cha kukokoloka kwapachaka chimaposa mamita 20.
Kuneneratu za kusintha kwa m'mphepete mwa nyanja ndizovuta komanso zovuta, zomwe zimafuna kulingalira za kuyanjana kwa zinthu zingapo, kuphatikizapo mphamvu zamafunde, kayendedwe ka zinyalala, ndi kukwera kwa nyanja. Kuneneratu zolondola kwa nthawi yaitali kumakhala kovuta kwambiri.
Zitsanzo zamakono zolosera zam'mphepete mwa nyanja zitha kugawidwa m'magulu atatu: imodzi imatengera kuyerekezera kwakuthupi, monga Delft3D ndi MIKE21 kutengera makina amadzimadzi ndi ma equation oyendera matope; imodzi ndi chitsanzo chosakanizidwa chomwe chimagwirizanitsa mfundo zakuthupi ndi njira zoyendetsedwa ndi deta, monga CoSMoS-COAST ndi LX-Shore; ndipo winayo ndi chitsanzo choyendetsedwa ndi deta chomwe chimadalira kwathunthu njira zowerengera kapena makina ophunzirira, monga maukonde a LSTM ndi zomangamanga za Transformer.
Ngakhale pali mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya zitsanzo, kusowa kwa njira zowunikira zomwe zapangitsa kuti kufananitsa magwiridwe antchito kukhala kovuta. Ndi chitsanzo chiti chomwe chimapereka maulosi olondola kwambiri? Mpikisano woyesa akhungu wa ShoreShop2.0 umapereka mpata wabwino kwambiri wofananirako panjira zosiyanasiyana.
Mpikisano wapadziko lonse wa ShoreShop2.0 woyesa akhungu ndi njira yolimba kwambiri yolumikizirana ndi asayansi. Magulu omwe akutenga nawo mbali amangodziwitsidwa za malo oyeserera, omwe ndi dzina lachidziwitso cha gombe kapena gombe. Zambiri monga malo ake ndi dzina lenileni zimabisidwa kuti ziteteze chidziwitso cham'mbuyomu kuti chisakhudze kuwongolera kwachitsanzo. Kuphatikiza apo, deta imasungidwa mwachinsinsi m'magawo, ndi data yochokera ku 2019-2023 (yakanthawi kochepa) ndi 1951-1998 (yapakati) yobisidwa mwadala. Zitsanzozi zimaneneratu za kusintha kwa nthawi yochepa komanso yapakati pamphepete mwa nyanja, pamapeto pake kutsimikizira kulondola kwawo pogwiritsa ntchito zinsinsi. Kapangidwe kameneka kamathandizira kufananitsa kosiyanasiyana kwa zitsanzo za m'mphepete mwa nyanja pansi pazikhalidwe zosadziwika bwino.
Magulu ofufuza makumi atatu ndi anayi ochokera kumayiko 15 adapereka zitsanzo, kuphatikiza mitundu 12 yoyendetsedwa ndi data ndi mitundu 22 yosakanizidwa. Maguluwa anachokera ku mabungwe a ku United States, Australia, Japan, France, ndi mayiko ena. Komabe, mitundu yoperekedwayo inalibe mitundu yamalonda monga GENESIS ndi mitundu yochokera ku fizikisi Delft3D ndi MIKE21.
Kuyerekeza kunawonetsa kuti zitsanzo zabwino kwambiri zolosera zazifupi, zaka zisanu zinali CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (hybrid model), GAT-LSTM_YM (data-driven model), ndi iTransformer-KC (chitsanzo choyendetsedwa ndi data). Mitundu iyi idapeza zolakwika zapakati pa mita pafupifupi 10, kufananiza ndi cholakwika chomwe chidachitika cha 8.9 metres mu data ya satellite yozindikira zam'mphepete mwa nyanja. Izi zikuwonetsa kuti m'magombe ena, luso lolosera zamtunduwu likuyandikira malire aukadaulo wowonera. Inde, zitsanzo zina zinatha kulanda bwino kusintha kwa m'mphepete mwa nyanja.
Chodabwitsa chinali chakuti mtundu wosakanizidwa unachita mofanana ndi chitsanzo choyendetsedwa ndi deta. CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (chophatikizira chosakanizidwa) chimaphatikiza machitidwe akuthupi ndi ma convolutional, pomwe GAT-LSTM_YM (data-driven model) imagwiritsa ntchito netiweki yowunikira ma graph kuti igwirizane ndi malo. Mitundu yonse iwiriyi idachita bwino.
Potengera zolosera zapakatikati, mndandanda wa LX-Shore (mitundu yosakanizidwa) umapereka zolosera zapafupi kwambiri pakuwunika deta. Mwa kuphatikiza njira zoyendera m'mphepete mwa nyanja ndi lateral sediment, zitsanzozi zimakhalabe zokhazikika kwanthawi yayitali pomwe zikuwonetsa mayankho osasinthika ku zochitika zamphepo yamkuntho ndi data yoyezedwa. Zoneneratu zochokera kumitundu iyi zikuwonetsa kuti chimphepo chamkuntho chowopsa chingayambitse kuthawa kwa gombe mpaka 15-20 metres, ndikuchira kwathunthu kumatha zaka ziwiri kapena zitatu. Mndandanda wa CoSMoS-COAST umapereka kukhazikika kwabwino, pomwe mitundu ina imatha kudwala kwakanthawi komanso kuyankha mopitilira muyeso.
Zotsatira zachitsanzo zimasonyeza zimenezokhalidwe la detandi chinthu chofunikira cholepheretsa pakuchita bwino kwachitsanzo. Ngakhale kuti chidziwitso cha satellite chakutali chimakhudza malo ambiri, kusintha kwake kwakanthawi kumakhala kochepa, nthawi zambiri sabata iliyonse mpaka mwezi uliwonse, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kuchira msanga pambuyo pa mkuntho. Komanso, m'mphepete mwa madzi nthawi yomweyo imakhudzidwa ndi kuthamanga kwa mafunde ndi mafunde, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale zolakwika zomwe zingakhudze zolosera zachitsanzo.
Kafukufukuyu adapeza kuti kusalaza kwa data kwa spatiotemporal, monga kugwiritsa ntchito njira zolimba zosefera zamitundu iwiri, kumatha kupititsa patsogolo magwiridwe antchito amitundu. Pambuyo pake, mitundu yoyesera yopanda khungu idapereka zolakwika zapakati ndi 15% kudzera pakukonza bwino kwa data.
Robust 2D Smoothing ndi njira yotsogola yopangira ma siginecha yopangidwa makamaka kuti ipange phokoso mu data ya satellite yam'mphepete mwa nyanja. Kwenikweni, ndi njira yosefera yobwerezabwereza yotengera mabwalo ochepa kwambiri, ndipo ndiyolimba kwambiri kuzinthu zakunja monga phokoso losakhalitsa pazithunzi za satellite.
Chinanso chofunikira pakulosera kwachitsanzo ndi kulondola kwa data ya mafunde apafupi ndi nyanja. Pakalipano, deta yoweyula ili ndi zolakwika zosiyanasiyana, kuphatikizapo zolakwika za kutembenuka kwapafupi kwa deta yapadziko lonse lapansi yowunikiranso, kukondera komwe kumachitika chifukwa chochotsa magawo a mafunde pa isobath ya mamita 10 osati malo osweka, komanso kunyalanyaza zotsatira za zochitika zoopsa pogwiritsa ntchito mafunde apakati tsiku ndi tsiku. Zolakwika zonsezi zitha kukhudza zolosera zachitsanzo.
Zolosera zanthawi yayitali, mitundu yambiri imadalira malamulo amtundu wa Brownian kuti athe kuyerekeza kukwera kwamadzi am'nyanja. Komabe, lamuloli limakhala ndi dothi lopanda malire komanso lopanda malire ndipo limanyalanyaza zoyendera za m'mphepete mwa nyanja kapena zochitika za anthu, monga chakudya cham'mphepete mwa nyanja. Izi zitha kuyambitsa kukondera kwakukulu kwachitsanzo.
Kutengera ndi chiphunzitso cha mbiri yofananira, malamulo a Brownian amapereka ubale wofananira pakati pa kukwera kwa madzi a m'nyanja ndi kubwerera m'mphepete mwa nyanja. Chiphunzitsochi chimatsimikizira kuti mawonekedwe a m'mphepete mwa nyanja amakhalabe ndi mawonekedwe ofanana. Pamene madzi a m'nyanja akukwera, kuchuluka kwa malo okhalamo kumapangitsa kuti malo omwe ali ofananawo asunthike kumtunda kuti asunge mawonekedwe ake molingana ndi nyanja yatsopano. Chifukwa chake, chiphunzitsocho chimati pamene mawonekedwe a m'mphepete mwa nyanja akusunthira kumtunda, mtunda wa m'mphepete mwa nyanjayo umakokoloka, ndipo zinthu zomwe zidakokoloka zimayikidwa kumtunda, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pansi panyanja pafupi ndi nyanja kukwera, potero kusunga madzi akuya nthawi zonse. Lamulo la Brown limaneneratu kuti kubwerera m'mphepete mwa nyanja kungakhale kokulirapo kuwirikiza ka 10 mpaka 50 kuposa kukwera kwa madzi a m'nyanja, malingana ndi kutsetsereka kwa gombe.
Phunziroli limapereka maziko osankha zida zoyenera malinga ndi zosowa zapadera. Kuphatikiza apo, kukonza zidziwitso ndikofunikira; kukonza bwino deta nthawi zina kungakhale ndi chikoka chachikulu kuposa chitsanzo chokha. Kutengera zomwe zapezedwa ndi ShoreShop 2.0, zosintha zitha kupangidwa pa satellite ndi ma wave data kuti ziwonjezeke zolosera. Kuphatikiza apo, kusalamulirika kwa magombe osokonekera pazolosera kwanthawi yayitali kungakhudzenso zotsatira zolosera. Kuphatikiza apo, kusowa kwa kutenga nawo gawo kwamitundu yamalonda monga GENESIS, Delft3D, ndi MIKE21 ndi nkhani yayikulu.
.Guardian of the Blue Frontier: Ntchito Yazaka 11 ya Frankstar Yoteteza Nyanja Zathu ndi Nyengo
Kwa zaka zopitirira khumi, Frankstar wakhala ali patsogolo pa kuyang'anira zachilengedwe zam'madzi, akugwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wapamwamba kwambiri komanso mwamphamvu zasayansi kuti apereke zambiri zam'nyanja zam'madzi komanso zam'madzi. Cholinga chathu chikuposa kusonkhanitsa deta chabe - ndife okonza tsogolo lokhazikika, timapereka mphamvu kwa mabungwe, mayunivesite, ndi maboma padziko lonse lapansi kuti apange zisankho zoyenera pazaumoyo wa dziko lathu lapansi.
Nthawi yotumiza: Aug-11-2025