Ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okuholela ekukhuphukeni kwamazinga olwandle neziphepho ezinamandla, ugu lomhlaba wonke lubhekene nezingozi zokuguguleka ezingakaze zibonwe ngaphambili. Nokho, ukubikezela ngokunembile ukuguquguquka kogu kuyinselele, ikakhulukazi izitayela zesikhathi eside. Muva nje, ucwaningo lokusebenzisana lwamazwe ngamazwe lwe-ShoreShop2.0 luhlole ukusebenza kwamamodeli wokuqagela ugu lwama-34 ngokuhlolwa okungaboni, okuveza isimo samanje sobuciko ekumodeleni ogwini.
Ugu luwumngcele oguquguqukayo lapho umhlaba uhlangana khona nolwandle, uguquguquka njalo ngenxa yamagagasi, amagagasi, iziphepho, nokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle. Cishe ama-24% ogu olunesihlabathi emhlabeni wonke ahlehla ngenani elingaphezu kwamamitha angu-0.5 ngonyaka, futhi kwezinye izindawo, njenge-US Gulf Coast, izinga lokuguguleka komhlaba likhulu ngisho nangaphezu kwamamitha angu-20.
Ukubikezela uguquko logu kunzima ngokwemvelo futhi kuyinkimbinkimbi, kudinga ukucabangela ukusebenzisana kwezinto eziningi, okuhlanganisa amandla amaza, ukuthuthwa kwenhlabathi, kanye nokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle. Izibikezelo ezinembile esikhathini eside ziyinselele nakakhulu.
Amamodeli esimanjemanje wokubikezela ugu angahlukaniswa abe izigaba ezintathu: esisodwa sisekelwe ekulingiseni okungokoqobo, okufana ne-Delft3D ne-MIKE21 esekelwe kumakhenika oketshezi kanye nezibalo zokuthutha intlenga; enye imodeli eyingxube ehlanganisa izimiso zomzimba nezindlela eziqhutshwa idatha, njenge-CoSMoS-COAST ne-LX-Shore; kanti enye imodeli eqhutshwa idatha ethembele ngokuphelele kumasu okufunda ezibalo noma omshini, njengamanethiwekhi e-LSTM kanye nezakhiwo ze-Transformer.
Naphezu kwezinhlobonhlobo ezibanzi zamamodeli, ukuntuleka kwemibandela yokuhlola ehlanganisiwe kwenze ukuqhathanisa ukusebenza kwaba nzima. Iyiphi imodeli enikeza izibikezelo ezinembe kakhulu? Umncintiswano we-ShoreShop2.0 wokuhlola impumputhe unikeza ithuba elihle lokuqhathanisa izigwegwe ezihlukene.
Umncintiswano we-ShoreShop2.0 wokuhlola izimpumputhe wamazwe ngamazwe uwuhlobo oluqinile lokusebenzisana kwesayensi. Amaqembu abambe iqhaza aziswa kuphela ngendawo yokuhlola, okuyigama lekhodi letheku noma lolwandle. Ulwazi olubalulekile njengendawo yalo kanye negama langempela lifihliwe ukuze kuvinjelwe ulwazi lwangaphambili ekuthonyeni ukulinganiswa kwemodeli. Ngaphezu kwalokho, idatha igcinwa iyimfihlo ezigabeni, nedatha esuka ku-2019-2023 (isikhathi esifushane) kanye no-1951-1998 (isikhathi esimaphakathi) egodliwe ngamabomu. Amamodeli abe esebikezela izinguquko zogu lwesikhathi esifushane nesimaphakathi, ekugcineni aqinisekise ukunemba kwazo kusetshenziswa idatha eyimfihlo. Lo mklamo uvumela ukuqhathanisa okuphambene nezigwegwe kwamamodeli asogwini ngaphansi kwezimo ezingaziwa ngokuphelele.
Amaqembu ocwaningo angamashumi amathathu nane avela emazweni ayi-15 athumele amamodeli, ahlanganisa amamodeli ayi-12 aqhutshwa yidatha kanye namamodeli angama-22 ayingxube. Lawa maqembu abeqhamuka ezikhungweni zase-United States, Australia, Japan, France nakwamanye amazwe. Kodwa-ke, amamodeli ahanjisiwe ayengenawo amamodeli okuhweba afana ne-GENESIS kanye namamodeli asuselwa ku-physics i-Delft3D ne-MIKE21.
Ukuqhathanisa kuveze ukuthi amamodeli asebenza kahle kakhulu ezibikezelo zesikhathi esifushane, zeminyaka emihlanu kwakuyi-CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (imodeli eyingxube), i-GAT-LSTM_YM (imodeli eqhutshwa idatha), kanye ne-iTransformer-KC (imodeli eqhutshwa idatha). Lawa mamodeli athole amaphutha e-root mean square cishe amamitha ayi-10, uma kuqhathaniswa nephutha elingokwemvelo lamamitha angu-8.9 kudatha ye-satellite yenzwa ekude yogu. Lokhu kubonisa ukuthi kwamanye amabhishi, amandla okubikezela amamodeli asondela emikhawulweni yobuchwepheshe bokubuka. Yiqiniso, amanye amamodeli akwazile ukuthwebula kangcono izinguquko zogu.
Okutholakele okumangazayo ukuthi imodeli ye-hybrid yenze ngokuqhathaniswa nemodeli eqhutshwa idatha. I-CoSMoS-COAST-CONV_SV (imodeli exubile) ihlanganisa izinqubo ezibonakalayo nokusebenza kwe-convolutional, kuyilapho i-GAT-LSTM_YM (imodeli eqhutshwa idatha) isebenzisa inethiwekhi yokunaka yegrafu ukuze ithwebule ukuhlobana kwendawo. Womabili amamodeli asebenze kahle.
Ngokuya ngezibikezelo zesikhathi esimaphakathi, uchungechunge lwe-LX-Shore (amamodeli ayingxube) lunikeza ukuqagela okuseduze kwedatha elinganiselwe. Ngokuhlanganisa izinqubo zokuthutha intlenga ngasosebeni kanye ne-lateral sediment, lawa mamodeli agcina ukuzinza kwesikhathi eside kuyilapho ebonisa izimpendulo ezingaguquki ezenzakalweni zesiphepho esinamandla ngedatha elinganiselwe. Izibikezelo ezivela kulawa mamodeli zibonisa ukuthi isiphepho esinamandla esisodwa singabangela ukuhlehla kwesikhashana kosebe lolwandle okungafika kumamitha ayi-15-20, nokululama okugcwele okungenzeka kuthathe iminyaka emibili kuya kwemithathu. Uchungechunge lwe-CoSMoS-COAST lunikeza ukuzinza okuhle kakhulu, kuyilapho amanye amamodeli angase ahlupheke ngokukhukhuleka kwesikhathi eside kanye nokusabela ngokweqile.
Imiphumela yamamodeli ikhombisa lokhoikhwalithi yedathaisici esiyinhloko esikhawulela ekusebenzeni kwemodeli. Nakuba idatha yenzwa yesathelayithi ihlanganisa indawo ebanzi, ukulungiswa kwayo kwesikhashana kuphansi, ngokuvamile masonto onke kuya kwanyanga zonke, okwenza kube nzima ukuthwebula ukutholakala okusheshayo kwangemva kwesiphepho. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umkhawulo wamanzi osheshayo uthintwa ukugeleza kwamagagasi namagagasi, okuholela emaphutheni esikhashana angathinta ukuqagela kwemodeli.
Ucwaningo luthole ukuthi ukushelela kwedatha ye-spatiotemporal, njengokusebenzisa amasu okuhlunga aqinile anezinhlangothi ezimbili, kungathuthukisa kakhulu ukusebenza kwemodeli. Kamuva, amamodeli okuhlola angaphuphutheki athumele iphutha elincishisiwe elimaphakathi ngo-15% ngokucubungula kusengaphambili kwedatha.
I-Robust 2D Smoothing iyindlela ethuthukisiwe yokucubungula isignali eklanyelwe ngokuqondile ukucubungula umsindo kudatha yesathelayithi yasogwini. Empeleni, iyi-algorithm yokuhlunga ephindaphindwayo esekelwe kuzikwele ezinesisindo esincane, futhi iqine kakhulu kwabangaphandle njengomsindo wegagasi wesikhashana ezithombeni zesathelayithi.
Esinye isici esibalulekile ekubikezelweni kwemodeli ukunemba kwedatha yamagagasi aseduze nogu. Okwamanje, idatha ye-wave ihlushwa amaphutha ahlukahlukene, okuhlanganisa amaphutha ekuguquleni eduze nogu kwedatha yokuhlaziya kabusha amagagasi omhlaba, ukuchema okubangelwa ukukhipha amapharamitha wamagagasi endaweni eyi-10-metres isobath kune-breaking zone, kanye nokubukelwa phansi komthelela wezenzakalo ezimbi kakhulu ngokusebenzisa izimo zamagagasi ezimaphakathi nsuku zonke. Lawa maphutha wonke angathinta ukuqagela kwamamodeli.
Ngokubikezela kwesikhathi eside, amamodeli amaningi ancike emthethweni wakudala we-Brownian ukuze alinganisele umthelela wokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle. Kodwa-ke, lo mthetho uthatha ukunikezwa kwentlenga okungapheli futhi olinganiselayo futhi ungayinaki imiphumela yokuthutha intlenga yasogwini noma imisebenzi yabantu, efana nokondliwa kolwandle. Lokhu kungaholela ekukhetheni okukhulu kwamamodeli.
Ngokusekelwe kumbono wephrofayili yokulingana, umthetho ka-Brownian uhlinzeka ngobudlelwano obuqondile phakathi kokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle nokuhlehla kogu. Lo mbono ubeka ukuthi iphrofayili yasogwini igcina isimo sokulingana. Njengoba izinga lolwandle likhuphuka, indawo yokuhlala ekhulayo iphoqa le phrofayili yokulinganisa ukuthi ishintshele emhlabathini ukuze igcine isimo sayo siqhathaniswa nezinga elisha lolwandle. Ngakho-ke, umbono ubeka ukuthi njengoba iphrofayili yogu igudlukela emhlabeni, ungqimba olungaphezulu lolwandle luyaguguleka, futhi impahla egugulekayo igawulwe ngasogwini, okubangele ukuphakama kogu oluseduze nogu, ngaleyo ndlela kugcine ukujula okungashintshi kwamanzi. Umthetho kaBrown ubikezela ukuthi ukuhlehla ogwini kungaba mkhulu ngokuphindwe ka-10 kuya kwezingu-50 kunokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle, kuye ngomthambeka wolwandle.
Lolu cwaningo lunikeza isisekelo sokukhetha amathuluzi afanele ngokusekelwe ezidingweni ezithile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukucubungula ngaphambilini kwedatha kubalulekile; ukucutshungulwa kwedatha okufanele kwesinye isikhathi kungaba nomthelela omkhulu kunemodeli uqobo. Ngokwakhela phezu kolwazi olutholwe nge-ShoreShop 2.0, kungenziwa ukuthuthukiswa kudatha yesathelayithi negagasi ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukunemba kokubikezela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imiphumela engalawuleki yamabhishi aphazamiseke ngokuzenzela kuzibikezelo zesikhathi eside ingase ibe nomthelela omkhulu emiphumeleni yokuqagela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuntuleka kokuhlanganyela okuvela kumamodeli ezentengiso afana ne-GENESIS, Delft3D, kanye ne-MIKE21 yinkinga ebalulekile.
.Guardians of the Blue Frontier: Inhloso kaFrankstar Yeminyaka eyi-11 Yokuvikela Ulwandle Lwethu kanye Nesimo Sezulu
Iminyaka engaphezu kweshumi, uFrankstar ubehamba phambili ekuphathweni kwemvelo yasolwandle, esebenzisa ubuchwepheshe obusezingeni eliphezulu kanye nokuqina kwesayensi ukuletha idatha engenakuqhathaniswa yolwandle kanye ne-hydrological. Umgomo wethu udlula ukuqoqwa kwedatha nje—singabakhi bekusasa elisimeme, sinikeza izikhungo, amanyuvesi, nohulumeni emhlabeni wonke amandla okwenza izinqumo ezinolwazi ngempilo yomhlaba wethu.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-11-2025